Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest observed temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 3 August 2026**, measured in Fahrenheit and settled from Wunderground’s daily history page. The current crowd price implies **0% for YES**, which is an extreme signal in a market that will only resolve once the day’s full set of readings is complete and any revisions are cut off after the first datapoint for the following date is published.[1]

For context, New York summer highs usually sit in the low 80s Fahrenheit, and the market’s own ladder shows the crowd clustering around **82–85°F** rather than the far tails.[1][2][9] That makes a zero-priced YES easiest to read as a “bad weather / wrong venue / wrong outcome” flag rather than a view that the airport could not print a summer high at all. In programmatic terms, a bot would treat this as a range-resolution problem: map live forecast distributions to the market’s discrete bins, then compare the expected maximum against the current ask across adjacent strikes rather than the headline probability alone.[1][13]

The main catalysts are the forecast updates before and during the day, plus any convective bursts, sea-breeze shifts, or cloud cover changes that alter the afternoon peak. Traders using conditional orders or copy-trading rules would typically watch the National Weather Service short-range guidance and any late-breaking local coverage for heat, rain, or thunderstorm timing; airport-specific readings can move differently from city-centre forecasts because runway exposure and marine influence matter. Recent local reporting has shown how quickly LaGuardia can post standout temperature extremes in a heat event, underlining why a high-frequency approach should key off the station feed rather than borough-wide averages.[14][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.