Fed Decision in July?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The July FOMC meeting is the event that will decide whether the upper bound of the federal funds target range is left at 3.75% or moved, with this market resolving on the size of that change versus the pre-meeting level. The current crowd-implied price of 77% for **no change** sits alongside a meaningful minority expecting a 25 bp increase, which suggests traders are treating July as a hold with some residual tightening risk rather than a clear-cut cut or hike outcome. [1][6]

That positioning fits the recent path: the Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in the March 2026 meeting, and the current range has been in place since the December 2025 cut. More broadly, traders usually read a 70%+ hold probability as a base case unless incoming data or Fed communication shifts the balance sharply before the meeting. [2][5]

For a programmatic approach, the main inputs to watch are the FOMC calendar, the statement release time, and the post-meeting press conference, because price can move quickly on wording around inflation, employment, and balance between risks. The July meeting is scheduled for 28–29 July 2026, so automated setups typically key off the decision announcement window and then parse the target-range language for any 25 bp change; if the Fed were to move in an increment not listed, the market rules round that move up to the nearest 25 bp bracket. [6][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.