Fed Decision in September?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting is scheduled for 15–16 September, with the policy statement due at 2 p.m. Eastern on 16 September and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.; the market resolves against the upper bound of the target federal funds range in place before that meeting, so a 25bp move would take the current 3.50%–3.75% range to 3.75%–4.00% or 3.25%–3.50% depending on direction.[1][8][17] With crowd-implied odds at just 1% for a September change, the contract is pricing an outcome that is well away from the recent baseline of holds and 25bp moves, so programmatic traders will typically model it as a low-frequency event with a sharp binary repricing around the decision window.[2][12][20]

Recent comparable meetings show why the current probability needs to be read alongside the Fed’s own signalling rather than just the headline rate path. In July, the Fed held steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but the vote was split and several officials dissented in favour of a hike, which had already pushed market expectations around the September meeting higher earlier in the summer.[16][7] Earlier in 2026, the Fed also held rates unchanged while releasing updated Summary of Economic Projections, with markets watching for whether officials pencilled in more easing or a more restrictive stance; that matters here because the September meeting includes the SEP and dot plot, which often move expectations even when the actual rate decision does not.[6][10][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.