Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz needs to get back to a 7-day average of **60 arrivals** on IMF Portwatch for the market to settle Yes, and the current 59% crowd price implies traders see that as more likely than not by year-end. For a programmatic workflow, the clean trigger is the Portwatch “Arrivals of Ships” series: a bot can poll the published moving average, compare it with the 60 threshold, and alert or auto-route orders as soon as a qualifying print appears.

The probability needs to be read against a 2026 baseline that has been highly disrupted but gradually improving. Reuters reported in April that traffic was still running at less than 10% of usual levels, with only seven vessels in the previous 24 hours versus a normal flow of around 140[14]. CNBC then noted in June that traders had pushed the odds up after the U.S.-Iran agreement, while still expecting a slow normalisation rather than an immediate snap-back[15]. That matters for calendar-based pricing: this market does not require a sustained recovery, only a single Portwatch 7-day average at or above 60 before 31 December 2026[1][2].

The main catalysts are therefore operational, not just diplomatic: any announcement on ceasefire durability, shipping security, mine clearance, vessel charging rules, or corridor reopening can feed into the Portwatch series with a delay. The key dependency for traders is whether weekly arrival counts can cross the threshold and remain there long enough to be published, because the contract resolves on the IMF’s published reading rather than on headline claims about “reopening”[1][2]. Recent coverage also suggests the market has been repricing around conflict risk and the pace of commercial clear-through, which makes conditional orders around major news or Portwatch release times the practical way to handle it[16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.