Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the US military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026, which triggered his detention in Brooklyn and the immediate swearing-in of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president. While the US now recognises Rodríguez as the sole head of state, the Venezuelan Supreme Court and military maintain a complex duality where Maduro is still claimed as the *de jure* president despite being *de facto* removed. This 6% probability for a Maduro-led outcome by December 2026 reflects the extreme improbability of his release from US custody before facing federal drug trafficking charges, alongside the entrenched position Rodríguez has secured with military backing.

Historically, similar forced removals of Latin American leaders rarely result in a return to power once the individual is held in US custody, as seen in cases where extradition or prolonged legal proceedings effectively end political careers. The current low probability aligns with precedents where acting presidents, once sworn in and recognised by international bodies like the UN or US courts, consolidate power through amnesty laws and institutional control, making a reversal unlikely unless a sudden diplomatic collapse occurs. Rodríguez’s recent approval of a broad amnesty bill and her brother’s leadership of the National Assembly further cement her authority, reducing the likelihood of Maduro’s reinstatement.

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically should monitor three key catalysts: the date of Maduro’s first federal court appearance in Manhattan, any US diplomatic shifts regarding Venezuela’s oil reserves, and announcements from the Venezuelan Supreme Court on Rodríguez’s tenure. Recent reporting from CNN confirms Maduro faces serious charges next week, with no indication of release, while PBS notes Rodríguez’s leadership marks a significant moment of uncertainty that Trump’s administration intends to pressure. Traders should set conditional orders tied to these dates, as a sudden US policy reversal or a failed prosecution could be the only viable catalyst for a Maduro resurgence, though current data suggests this path is nearly closed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.