Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would need to permanently leave the presidency before 30 June 2026 through resignation, removal via impeachment and conviction, or invocation of the 25th Amendment. The market excludes temporary measures or procedural suspensions; only a definitive end to his tenure qualifies. An announcement of departure triggers immediate settlement, regardless of the effective date stated in that announcement.

Presidential removal outside electoral defeat remains historically rare in American politics. No sitting president has been removed via the 25th Amendment; Andrew Johnson survived impeachment in 1868 by a single Senate vote, whilst Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 facing near-certain conviction. The 1% probability reflects this baseline scarcity, anchored to the assumption that Trump completes his term absent extraordinary constitutional crisis. Traders building conditional logic around this market should weight the distinction between impeachment initiation (which occurs regularly) and the supermajority Senate conviction required for removal—a substantially higher bar that has never been cleared.

Catalysts to monitor include congressional composition shifts following the 2026 midterms, any major criminal conviction outcomes in pending cases, and formal impeachment proceedings in the House. Recent reporting from Reuters and the Washington Post has tracked ongoing litigation timelines; traders integrating this market into algorithmic portfolios should flag announcements from the Senate Judiciary Committee or House leadership signalling removal intent. The settlement window's length—18 months from market creation—allows for substantial political development, but the extremely low probability reflects the structural difficulty of removing a president with unified party control of Congress.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.