Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Marta Kostyuk and Mirra Andreeva are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros women's draw on 4 June 2026. The market currently prices Kostyuk's advancement at 1%, implying overwhelming confidence in an Andreeva victory. Settlement depends on match completion by 11 June; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days without resolution triggers a 50-50 split.

Andreeva's dominance in head-to-head records and seeding position typically anchors such disparities. The Ukrainian Kostyuk has faced Andreeva twice on the professional circuit, with mixed results that nonetheless favour the Russian player in recent encounters. Comparable early-round matchups at Roland Garros involving a higher-ranked player against a lower-ranked opponent show that 1% probabilities rarely materialise unless the underdog possesses specific tactical advantages—surface preference, injury history, or recent form shifts. Kostyuk's clay-court record and left-handed serve mechanics offer marginal leverage, yet the market's confidence in Andreeva reflects her superior ranking and consistency metrics.

Traders monitoring this match should track injury announcements through the WTA official channels and Roland Garros draw confirmations, particularly given the compressed timeline between scheduling and settlement. Weather delays at Roland Garros frequently compress schedules; a match pushed to 10–11 June could face completion pressure. Programmatic traders should flag any withdrawal notices or walkover declarations, which would trigger immediate resolution. Pre-match odds movements in the final 48 hours often signal late-breaking form data or court-surface adjustments that the 1% probability may not yet reflect.

Methodology

We track Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.