# of views of MrBeast video week 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

MrBeast’s next upload must clear a very wide week-one view band, and the market is currently pricing **0% for YES**, which means traders are effectively saying the listed bracket is not where the first seven days will land. For a programmatic setup, the key inputs are simple: detect the next public video on @MrBeast, start the seven-day clock from its publish time, and then read YouTube’s visible view counter at day 7, with the rule that any exact bracket boundary rounds up into the higher range.

The nearest historical guide is that MrBeast routinely posts at scale, but the market is still sensitive to whether a release behaves like a standard flagship upload or an outlier. Recent Polymarket-linked coverage shows the same family of contracts has previously concentrated around the 60–70M and 80–90M bands, while another resolved MrBeast week-one market landed at 80–90M after the video hit 80.9M views at day seven[2][3]. That matters for bots and copy-traders because the distribution is lumpy: a single upload can dominate pricing, so model outputs should be refreshed around the upload timestamp rather than treated as a slow-moving trend.

The main catalysts are the upload itself, thumbnail/title changes, and whether the video is delayed past the market’s fallback deadline; if no video is posted by 31 August 2026, the contract resolves to the lowest bracket. A utility approach is to monitor the channel RSS or YouTube API for a new upload, then poll the public counter at fixed intervals near day seven, because the market resolves off the official channel’s displayed views, not third-party estimates[2][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.