NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Democratic primary for New York’s 13th Congressional District seat, held on 23 June 2026, to determine who will contest the general election for the U.S. House in November. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat faces a serious challenge from activist Darializa Avila Chevalier, with current prediction markets assigning Espaillat a 61% chance of winning the nomination[1][5]. The market in question reflects a 56% YES probability that Espaillat secures the Democratic nomination, aligning closely with broader odds but slightly below the leading figure[1].

Historically, incumbent House members in New York City districts typically retain strong primary advantages, especially when backed by party structures, though activist challengers have occasionally narrowed gaps in recent cycles. In comparable 2024 and 2022 primaries, incumbents like Espaillat’s predecessors held 55–65% nomination shares, suggesting the current 56% probability is consistent with past patterns but leaves room for volatility if challenger momentum grows[1][7]. Programmatic traders would model this as a conditional order with a stop-loss if Avila Chevalier’s polling crosses 45%, using copy-trading bots to mirror large-position movements.

Key catalysts include the NY1-hosted primary debate on 20 June 2026, where Espaillat speaks first, and any post-debate polling shifts[2]. Traders should monitor filing deadlines (already passed), candidate withdrawal announcements before 23 June, and any late endorsements from Democratic Party officials[3][5]. A recent Cook Political Report notes Avila Chevalier’s rising profile as a 32-year-old activist, which could influence conditional order triggers if her support surges[5]. The settlement window ends 23 June 2026, with resolution sourced from democrats.org consensus[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.