How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

A **6.5+ earthquake** anywhere on Earth in this one-week window is a binary event that the market then reduces to a count, so the practical task is less about trend-picking than monitoring whether any qualifying quake has been logged by the USGS search feed before settlement. The USGS classifies events with magnitude-driven significance, and anything at or above 6.5 is large enough to be visually prominent in its earthquake listings and significant-event pages.[1][8]

The current **96% yes** pricing is consistent with how common at least one 6.5+ event is over a full week in a globally active seismic system, especially given that 2026 has already produced multiple major shocks, including a 7.8 Mindanao quake in June and a 6.9 offshore Honshu event later the same month.[5][11] For a bot or workflow built around this market, the useful edge is a simple polling rule: query the USGS event API or search endpoint on a cadence, flag any event with magnitude ≥6.5 inside the market’s exact timestamp bounds, and leave room for late catalogue updates if a quake appears in regional reports before it is indexed centrally.[9][7]

For catalysts, the main watchlist is not a scheduled announcement but the live aftershock pipeline and any large offshore event that may be revised upward after initial automatic processing. Recent world-earthquake summaries show that daily global activity continues to generate many small and moderate quakes, while the 6+ tier is intermittent; on 9 August, one public tracker was still reporting no magnitude-6-or-higher quakes in the prior 24 hours, which matters because a quiet day can still flip if a late-reviewed event crosses the threshold.[6][4] Programmatically, this is a good candidate for conditional orders keyed to the first verified USGS hit, with a final check against the market’s settlement-source rules if a substantial quake has occurred but not yet propagated through the official catalogue.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

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