Market statistics
- Total volume
- $196K
- 24h volume
- $122K
- Liquidity
- $134K
- Open interest
- $30K
Available prediction outcomes (8)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026, to elect the next mayor of Seoul. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by
Wikipedia Context
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2018 Seoul mayoral election
The 2018 Seoul mayoral election was held on 13 June 2018 as part of the 7th local elections. Incumbent Park Won-soon was elected for his third consecutive term; the South Korean Public Election Act places a limit of three consecutive terms on holders of the post, so that Park will not be able to run in the next mayoral election.
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2010 Seoul mayoral election
The 2010 Seoul mayoral election was held on 2 June 2010 as part of the 5th local elections.
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2014 Seoul mayoral election
The 2014 Seoul mayoral election was held on 4 June 2014 as part of the 6th local elections.
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2021 South Korean by-electionsThe 2021 South Korean by-elections were held in South Korea on 7 April 2021. The National Election Commission announced on 2 March 2021, that the by-elections would be held for 21 public offices or electoral districts, including 2 Metropolitan mayors, 2 Municipal mayors, 8 Metropolitan Council constituencies, and 9 Municipal Council constituencies. Candidate
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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