Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 84% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 60% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 51% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Sadio Mané: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Edouard Mendy: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 46% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ goals | 42% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Jeremy Doku: 5+ shots | 38% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots | 7% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 3% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of belgium vs. senegal - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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