Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | 68% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 58% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 57% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 44% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 43% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 43% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 30% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Game 1 Winner | 19% |
| Game 2 Winner | 19% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 14% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 13% |
| Match Winner | 11% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 7% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 7% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: edward gaming vs anyone's legend (bo3) - lpl group ascend stands at 68% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between EDward Gaming and Anyone's Legend in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 12 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
We track LoL: EDward Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade LoL: EDward Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Gr… on Polymarket Bot UK
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