GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI would need to make a model explicitly called **GPT-6** publicly available before year-end for this market to settle “Yes”, and the current setup is that no such general release has been announced. OpenAI’s last clearly dated numbered-model launch was the April 2026 shipment of **GPT-5.5** (“Spud”), which was widely expected by some observers to be the next step before a true GPT-6 naming decision[1][12][18].

For market framing, the closest comparison is how OpenAI has previously staged releases: internal training first, then a public rollout that can be branded differently from what the market expected. That matters for a programmatic trader because a closed preview, API-only test, or renamed intermediate model would not satisfy settlement unless OpenAI explicitly labels it GPT-6 and opens it to the general public; in other words, the key signal is the public naming and access policy, not just evidence of a new frontier model in the pipeline[1][12][18].

The main catalysts to monitor are OpenAI launch posts, model-release notes, and any change in the public model catalogue or ChatGPT rollout schedule, since those are the places a general-access launch would surface first[11]. The market would likely reprice sharply on a formal announcement, while rumours about training runs, compute build-out, or “a few weeks” style comments matter only if they are followed by a public product page or broad sign-up path; several July 2026 trackers still described GPT-6 as unannounced and pushed the likely public window into late 2026 or 2027[10][16][18].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.