National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

Duncan Chan’s match with Thiago Agustin Tirante at the National Bank Open is a straightforward two-player elimination market, so the cleanest programmatic read is whether the scheduled fixture is actually played and, if so, whether either player advances. Chan’s public record is thin at ATP level, but his collegiate results at TCU show a strong recent run, including a 23-9 singles season in 2025-26 and 56-25 across his college career, while his ATP profile still lists no tour-level singles wins[2][7]. That combination often matters in first-round books because the market can overreact to name recognition rather than the match-up’s actual level of evidence[1][4].

The current 0% crowd-implied YES suggests the crowd is treating Chan as a near-impossible winner or, more likely, pricing the market as effectively dead unless there is a schedule or entry-list change. For a bot or copy-trading workflow, the key historical analogue is not headline odds movement but the “not played” path: if the match is withdrawn, delayed beyond seven days, or otherwise unresolved, the market settles 50-50 rather than to either side, which makes status monitoring as important as scoreline monitoring. Chan’s recent hard-court sample is small but positive, including 12-6 on hard in one set of published stats, which is the sort of fragmentary data that can move a thin early-round market if the draw weakens further[6][9].

The main catalysts to watch are official order-of-play updates, late withdrawals, and whether the event keeps the August 3 slot or pushes the match outside the seven-day settlement window. In practice, a trading stack would poll the tournament schedule, scrape draw changes, and trigger conditional orders only after the player list is confirmed; that matters here because the market description itself ties resolution to “advances against” rather than merely appearing on court. Chan is listed as a young Canadian player born in 2005, so any last-minute home wildcard, injury replacement, or qualifying promotion would be the operational signal that this market is still live rather than a stale 0% price[13][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.