Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the WTA 125K semi-final tennis match between Alina Charaeva and Ayla Aksu in Figueira Da Foz, Portugal, which was originally scheduled for 20 June 2026. The match has already concluded, with Ayla Aksu defeating Charaeva 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-6(4) after saving a match point at 5-6 in the decisive set[2]. This result means the prediction market resolving to "Alina Charaeva" advancing is definitively false, despite the crowd-implied probability of 100% YES, indicating a significant market mispricing or delayed settlement.

Historically, markets with 100% implied probability on an outcome that has already been contradicted by live results typically stem from data feed latency or conditional order failures where bots did not update after the match finished. In comparable cases from previous WTA tournaments, such discrepancies were resolved within hours once official score feeds from Flashscore or Sofascore were integrated into trading algorithms[1][4]. Programmatic traders would approach this by cross-referencing the match timestamp with the settlement window, noting that the 2026-06-27 deadline is irrelevant since the event concluded on 20 June.

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for any potential walkover or injury retroactive declarations, though the match score confirms completion. The primary catalyst is the integration of the final score into the platform’s oracle, which currently appears delayed. Recent coverage from Yahoo Sports confirms the match details and player ages, validating the outcome as final[6]. Conditional orders set to buy "Charaeva advances" would be automatically cancelled once the oracle updates, reflecting the factual result that Aksu advanced.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.