Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s airport temperature on 10 August will be set by the highest reading logged at Beijing Capital International Airport Station, and the market resolves from Weather Underground’s *Daily Observations* table rather than the summary high/low box. That means a programme or bot should watch the station feed itself, not just the headline “Day High & Low” figure, and map the final Celsius maximum into the market’s temperature bracket once the day is complete.[2]

The 0% crowd price is consistent with the fact that this is a specific one-day weather print, not a broad seasonal call, so historical August averages matter more than any headline forecast. Beijing’s August climatology is hot, with average highs around 30–31°C and typical daily maxima often landing in the low 30s, while observed 10 August examples in recent history have ranged from the high 20s to the low 30s Celsius.[1][6][16] For a trader using conditional orders or an automated watcher, the useful benchmark is whether the live airport observation is tracking above or below the low-30s band, because that determines which bracket is most likely to settle true.[1][6]

The main catalysts are straightforward: intraday heating, cloud cover, rain bands, and any forecast revision from the official short-range weather services feeding public apps. Time and Date’s current Beijing outlook shows a hot, dry day with sunshine and a forecast high around 91°F, which is broadly compatible with a low-30s Celsius outcome, while Weather Underground’s first observation already shows 77°F at midnight local time.[2][13] A hands-on monitoring setup would therefore poll the station page through the day, compare the running maximum against the target range, and trigger only once the highest observed temperature is safely beyond the relevant threshold.[2][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.