Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 3 August, measured in Celsius and settled off Wunderground history data. For a programme trading stack, that means the key variable is the day’s *actual airport maximum*, not the citywide forecast or the mean temperature, so a scraper or bot should watch the Wunderground daily-history page and the Celsius toggle rather than broader Beijing weather feeds.

On the historical side, August in Beijing is typically hot, with average highs around the low 30s Celsius and common daily ranges centred roughly between 22°C and 32°C, while some sources put early-August highs a touch higher and note frequent humidity and rain.[1][5][13][18][19] That matters for reading the current 0% YES price: it implies the market is not pricing in a high-end reading, but the climatology still leaves plenty of room for a top temperature above 30°C if the day stays bright before any showers arrive.[1][6][8][15]

For catalysts, the main inputs are the morning forecast updates, cloud cover, and thunderstorm timing, because convective rain can cap the airport’s peak by cutting insolation and lifting humidity.[2][4][8] Recent guidance published in the run-up to the day has Beijing around the low 30s Celsius with thundery showers in the forecast, which is the kind of setup that can move a temperature band market by a few degrees if the heaviest rain arrives early versus late.[2][4][8] A power user would usually model this with threshold probabilities around the settlement bands, then update as new hourly forecasts and observations come in, since the final print can only be affected by what happens before the station records its daily maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.