Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s top temperature on 10 August will be set by the day’s actual observations at Gimhae International Airport, not by the summary high shown elsewhere, so the practical task for traders is to follow the station history feed rather than the headline forecast card. Polymarket’s own market page currently has the main cluster around the low-30s Celsius, with 30°C and 31°C the leading bands, which fits the climatological picture of Busan in August: warm, humid, and often close to the high 20s or low 30s rather than extreme heat.[4][6][15]

For a programmatic approach, the useful signal is the live Weather Underground history table for RKPK, checked against the settlement rule that only the highest recorded value up to the first datapoint for the following date counts.[4] That makes intraday updates more relevant than broad forecasts: if an afternoon spike, thunderstorm outflow, or late-morning heating pushes the station above the current modal range, the market can reprice quickly. Historical August norms for Busan support that framing, with average highs near 29–31°C and occasional hotter extremes above 34°C, so the current 0% YES on any single band is more a reflection of crowd fragmentation than an obviously implausible outcome.[2][6][9][15]

The key catalysts are the local forecast evolution, the timing of any showers or thunderstorms, and whether winds or cloud cover suppress the daytime peak; recent forecast pages point to a generally warm day with showers or storms possible and highs around 28–29°C to the mid-30s Fahrenheit-equivalent? Actually, the market-relevant source set shows forecast highs clustered near 28–30°C, with a thunderstorm risk and moderate humidity, which is exactly the sort of setup that can leave the final station maximum one notch above or below the consensus band.[10][11][4] A power-user workflow would therefore poll the forecast, then watch the hourly station observations and only adjust positions once the live daily table begins to print a decisive maximum.[4][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.