Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is set to report the day’s *highest* air temperature for 3 August, so the key variable is the afternoon peak rather than the morning reading or the citywide average. August in Chengdu is typically hot and humid, with long-run guides putting daytime highs around 30–32°C and noting that short, scattered showers often interrupt otherwise steamy conditions.[2][5][9][16]

For a programme-style read on this market, the current 0% YES implies the crowd is assigning no weight to a very warm or extreme outcome in the market’s target range, which is notable because several forecast sources point to upper-20s or low-30s Celsius as the ordinary August regime, while some now-cast style pages show a hotter spike into the mid-30s or above for 3 August.[2][3][4][7][15] That makes this a data-pull market where a bot would normally track the airport station’s observed maximum through the day, compare it with the contract’s bands, and only update after the official daily high is locked in on the resolution source.

The main catalysts are timing and local convection: Chengdu’s temperature often tops out in the early-to-mid afternoon, but cloud cover, brief rain, or an earlier thunderstorm can cap the maximum well before the settlement window closes. Current live weather observations for Chengdu are already in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, so any move into a hotter bracket will depend on whether sunshine holds long enough for surface heating to build.[10][15][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.