Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the **daily maximum temperature** at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 4 August, as recorded by Wunderground, so a programmatic approach should key off the station’s single-day high rather than city-wide averages or forecast icons. August in Chengdu is typically hot and humid, with multiple reference sources putting early-August highs around 30–32°C and some day-by-day forecasts for 4 August clustering near 31–34°C, which makes the market behave like a narrow-range weather tape rather than a binary hot/cold call.[1][2][4][10][14]

For framing, the current **0% YES** crowd price looks detached from the climatology: historical August norms suggest Chengdu often reaches the low 30s, and even conservative monthly guides describe August as the hottest or near-hottest period of the year.[2][5][13][14][18] That means a bot watching this market would typically treat the early print as stale sentiment, then update only when live station readings, nearby airport observations, or a sharp change in cloud cover and rain timing materially alters the day’s upper bound; the Met Office’s Chengdu forecast, for example, shows 35°C with afternoon rain chances, illustrating how quickly a midday maximum can still be printed before showers arrive.[17]

The main catalysts are the day’s weather evolution, especially whether Chengdu gets late-morning heating before scattered rain or cloud cap the peak, plus any forecast revisions from major services that move expected highs by a degree or two. From an automation angle, this is the sort of market to poll repeatedly through the morning, compare forecast high bands against the settlement source’s station feed, and trigger only when the observed max is likely locked in; Chengdu’s summer humidity and intermittent rainfall make exact temperature-range placement sensitive to timing, not just the headline high.[2][5][7][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.