Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest temperature measured at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport** on 6 August, and the market settles on the temperature band containing that day’s maximum from Wunderground’s station history page. For a programmatic approach, the cleanest workflow is to query the history page once the day is underway, extract the daily maximum in Celsius, and map it to the market’s banding rather than trying to infer from generic city forecasts, which are often for downtown Chengdu rather than the airport station.[6][11][19]

The current **0% YES** crowd price is consistent with a market that has not yet seen the day’s observed reading, but comparable August climatology suggests the station can still finish in a warm range. Forecast and climate pages for Chengdu in August cluster around the low-30s Celsius, with some sources showing highs near 31–35°C and others giving late-summer averages around 29–34°C, which places the likely settlement zone well above the low bands if the airport follows the broader seasonal pattern.[7][12][16][17] For bot users, that means the key edge is not the headline forecast alone but whether the airport actually reaches the upper part of the daily range after any morning cloud or rain clears.

The main catalysts to watch are the **intraday forecast updates**, cloud cover, and rainfall timing, because Chengdu’s August weather is often humid and showery, and short-lived convection can suppress the day’s peak even when the afternoon turns bright.[2][8][13] A rules-based trader would typically poll the station source near local afternoon time, compare the observed maximum against the market’s Celsius brackets, and avoid relying on city-level summaries unless they clearly reference Chengdu Shuangliu Intl Arpt.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.