Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

The event is the **highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 June 2026**, taken from the day’s maximum on Wunderground’s station history page. For a programmatic trader, that means the key variable is not the city-wide feel but the single station maximum that prints before the day closes in local time, so an automated setup should poll the resolution source rather than rely on general forecasts or nearby stations.

Chengdu’s June climate is typically warm, humid and rain-prone, with June averages around 24°C and published June highs commonly near 28°C to the low 30s Celsius, while summer heat can run higher on individual days.[1][3][7] Wunderground’s own airport-linked history and NOAA’s ZUUU station references are useful comparables because they anchor the market to the same airport location and a similar observational environment, which is more relevant than broader Chengdu weather summaries.[2][4] That makes a 0% YES crowd price easy to misread if it reflects stale probability rather than a genuine expectation of an extreme outcome: in practice, the market resolves to whichever bracket contains the reported daily maximum, so bots should map the published Celsius value directly to the bracketed payout structure.

For catalysts, the main inputs are the forecast path, any afternoon thunderstorm activity, and whether cloud cover or rain suppresses the daytime peak; June forecasts for the airport have shown highs in the low 30s Celsius with shower risk, which is consistent with a ceiling that can still produce a mid-to-high 20s or low 30s reading depending on timing.[5][8] Traders running conditional orders would typically watch forecast updates into the morning and early afternoon, then switch to the live observation once the station’s maximum has likely peaked, because the settlement source is the recorded daily high rather than a model output.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.