Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s airport will be judged on the day’s *highest observed temperature*, and for a range market like this the key question is whether the max stays in the lower bands or pushes into the mid-to-upper 30s Celsius. August is typically Chongqing’s hottest month, with published climate guides putting average highs around 33–34°C and noting that extreme summer heat can reach 39–43°C, so a reading below 35°C would be cooler than the city’s usual peak-summer profile, while anything above 37°C would sit in the more severe tail of the distribution.[6][9][16]

For historical framing, the available August climatology suggests 3 August is usually hot but not uniformly extreme: one source shows an average high of 34.7°C for that date, while broader Chongqing August normals cluster around 34°C.[1][20] That makes a 0% implied probability for the relevant YES outcome notable if the contract is being read as a low-temperature bucket, because programmatically a trader would usually map the live airport forecast and daily max distribution to the market’s settlement bands, then compare the current ensemble forecast against the historical percentile for early August. Chongqing’s all-time city high of 43°C, recorded in August 2022, is the sort of outlier that can still matter for tails, but it does not represent the base case.[3][6]

The near-term catalysts are the 03:00–12:00 UTC forecast updates, any heat advisories, and the timing of afternoon convection, which can cap the daily maximum if cloud and rain develop early. The resolution source is Wunderground’s Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station page, so a power-user monitoring this market would typically watch that station’s live forecast, compare it with local weather bureau warnings, and automate alerts around the first observed peak temperature before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.[2][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.