Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s highest temperature on 4 August will be set by the day’s peak reading at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, so the practical question is whether the airport reaches a mid-30s Celsius high or pushes into the upper-30s range before the settlement cut-off. August is normally Chongqing’s hottest month, with typical highs around 34°C and historical 4 August averages near 34.6°C, while some climatology sources place extreme August highs as high as 39–43°C.[1][5][7]

That backdrop helps explain why the crowd’s 0% YES can be read as a pricing artefact rather than a meteorological claim. A programmatic approach would weight daily forecast highs against the resolution source, then add an adjustment for urban heat, humidity, and convective rain timing, because a brief storm can cap the airport’s maximum even when the broader city feels oppressive.[1][4][11] Recent reporting also points to a heatwave affecting Chongqing residents, which matters because persistent hot spells tend to keep intraday highs elevated unless cloud and rain arrive early enough to suppress the peak.[19]

For traders using bots or conditional orders, the key catalysts are the morning forecast updates, any change in thunderstorm timing, and whether the airport’s observing site sees the hottest part of the day before showers develop. The most relevant dependency is the Wunderground station feed itself, since the market resolves to that specific recorded maximum rather than to a citywide average or forecast product.[1] In practice, a model that ingests hourly forecast revisions and compares them with the airport’s historical August distribution will be more useful than one that simply tracks headline “feels like” temperatures.[1][7][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.