Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak heat recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 26 June 2026, specifically the highest temperature in degrees Celsius before the settlement window closes. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as a statistical outlier rather than a definitive forecast, given that June marks the start of Chongqing’s hot season, which runs from 19 June to 9 September with average daily highs exceeding 84°F (29°C) [3]. AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast for the airport indicates daily highs ranging from 75°F to 95°F (24°C to 35°C), while Travel China Guide notes daytime highs typically span 26°C to 35°C, suggesting that extreme heat is climatologically probable [5][9].

A power-user approaching this market programmatically would monitor Wunderground’s live hourly feed for the ZUCK station, setting conditional orders to trigger if temperatures breach 35°C, as this threshold aligns with the upper bound of typical June highs [5]. The primary catalyst to watch is the onset of local thunderstorms and showers forecast for 26 June, which Meteoblue predicts could temporarily suppress peak temperatures despite partly cloudy conditions [1]. Traders should also track the National Weather Service’s real-time wind and precipitation data for the airport, as sudden shifts in wind speed or rainfall intensity could alter the day’s maximum reading [2]. Recent weather patterns confirm that while Chongqing experiences high daytime averages of 28.7°C, the highest recorded temperature can reach 43°C, meaning a 0% probability may underestimate the risk of a heat spike [6][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.