Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas will experience its peak daily heat on 15 July 2026 at the Dallas Love Field Station, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that maximum reading. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s official daily history for station KDAL, capturing the single highest temperature recorded across all hours of that day.

Historically, mid-July in Dallas routinely sees highs between 88°F and 95°F, making the current 0% YES probability for any specific range appear misaligned with seasonal norms. Data from the Polymarket event shows “90–91°F” as the frontrunner at 44%, followed by “88–89°F” at 30%, suggesting the crowd expects a standard summer peak rather than an outlier [1]. This distribution mirrors past July heatwaves where temperatures consistently hovered in the low 90s, framing the zero probability as a likely pricing error rather than a signal of extreme cold.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecast updates for the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, particularly any shifts in cloud cover or wind direction that could suppress peak temperatures. A southerly flow with 50% humidity and falling pressure, as seen in current BBC Weather readings for Dallas, typically supports higher daytime maxima [2]. Programmatic approaches would query Wunderground’s historical API for KDAL on 15 July across multiple years to build a baseline distribution, then overlay real-time forecast adjustments from NWS to adjust conditional orders as the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.