Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s reading for 10 August will be taken from the **highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table** for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, so the practical task is to track the intraday peak rather than the headline “day high” display. At 8:00 AM CST, Weather Underground showed Guangzhou at **97°F/83°F** with a current temperature of **97°F**, which is already consistent with a hot baseline before the day’s maximum is locked in.[14]

For context, late-summer Guangzhou typically runs hot enough that small forecast changes matter more than the seasonal average. Climate summaries put August daily highs around **32–33°C**, with record extremes up to **38.4°C**, while Weather Underground’s recent daily history has already shown peaks of **95°F** on 6 August and **94°F** earlier in the day before evening cooling.[8][13] For a probability model, a current **0% YES** implies the market is pricing essentially no chance of an outcome in the relevant temperature band, so a bot would usually compare live observations against adjacent Celsius buckets and reprice only when the noon-to-afternoon build-up becomes visible.[13]

The main catalysts are straightforward: the midday and mid-afternoon observation points, any sudden cloud cover or convection, and whether temperatures at the airport station can reach the forecasted upper 30s Celsius. AccuWeather’s same-day forecast called for **100°F** with “hot with clouds and sun”, which would translate to a materially higher chance of landing in one of the upper temperature ranges if the observed peak matches the forecast.[12] For automated monitoring, the useful workflow is to poll the Daily Observations table, record each timestamped temperature, and update the conditional order only when a new maximum is printed, because settlement depends on the table’s highest listed value rather than the summary box.[9][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.