Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s temperature for the settlement day will be set by the *highest* reading logged at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on 4 August, so the practical question is whether the day’s peak stays in the high 20s or pushes into the low 30s Celsius. August is normally one of Guangzhou’s hottest and most humid months, with forecast pages putting typical highs around 91°F/33°C and daily ranges often clustered between the high 20s and low 30s Celsius.[1][5][12][19]

The current 0% YES price is best read as a stale or mispriced print rather than a statement that extreme heat is impossible; late-summer Guangzhou routinely sits close to the range boundary that would matter for a market like this. A useful comparison is the live and forecast material already pointing to around 30°C at Baiyun Airport, while other August guidance still allows highs as warm as 34–35.5°C on some days, which means a single sunny interval can matter if the day is being traded programmatically off a fixed temperature ladder.[7][13][14][16]

For catalysts, watch the airport station observations and the day’s convective rain pattern, because showers and cloud cover can clip the afternoon maximum even when the broader seasonal backdrop is hot and sticky.[3][7][17] The Hong Kong Observatory’s city forecast for Guangzhou on 3 August showed rain and a maximum of 29°C, which is a useful near-term signal for how much cooling suppresses the top-end reading.[17] In a bot or conditional-order workflow, the key inputs are the latest station observations, any shift in rain timing, and whether the temperature distribution is drifting across a category boundary before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.