Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s outcome depends on the **highest single reading** logged by the Hong Kong Observatory on 10 August, not the day’s average or a citywide estimate. The Observatory’s own climate archive uses the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” in its Daily Extract, so programmatic monitoring should key off the final published extract rather than live app forecasts or unofficial weather summaries.[2][16]

The current **0% YES** crowd price is easy to read against the historical context: Hong Kong’s August normal maximum is about **31.4°C** on 10 August, but the territory has recently produced much higher spikes. The Observatory recorded **34.4°C** on 10 August 2025 as the month’s high, and local reporting said Hong Kong reached **36.9°C** on 9 August 2026, with some districts above **38°C** and one station near **39.8°C**.[4][2][14] That means the market is not about what is typical, but whether 2026 ends up in a hot-tail regime that clears the higher outcome bands; a bot tracking implied probability would treat a zero price as a market saying “no move priced in”, not “impossible”.[4][14][9]

For traders using alerts, copy-trading, or conditional orders, the key inputs are the Observatory’s afternoon updates, any heat-related warnings, and the final Daily Extract publication time, because settlement cannot happen until the date is closed out in the archive.[16][10][2] Short-horizon pricing can also swing if the forecast remains near the record range; AccuWeather and timeanddate were already showing highs around **95–97°F** for 10 August, which is roughly **35–36°C**, consistent with elevated upside risk if actual conditions verify hotter than forecast.[1][7][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.