Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 3 August 2026, reported in Celsius to one decimal place and later mapped into the market’s outcome bands from the final Daily Extract. The current 0% YES implies the market is pricing in an outcome that the crowd sees as effectively impossible, so a programmatic trader would want to check whether that reflects a stale book, a mispriced tail, or simply the fact that the day’s maximum has not yet been published.

The historical read-through is straightforward: Hong Kong in August is usually hot and humid, with daily maxima commonly around the low 30s, but individual outcomes can be pulled down by cloud, rain, or a southerly flow. Polymarket’s own display currently points to 27°C and 28°C as the leading buckets, with recent commentary there citing persistent showers and extensive cloud cover as suppressing temperatures on the target date[2]. By contrast, local media has repeatedly reported 34–36°C readings during 2026 heat events, including the Observatory’s hottest day of the year at 34.3°C and another report of 35.6°C, which matters because a single-day spike can move the realised bucket sharply[9][14].

For traders using bots, copy strategies, or conditional orders, the main dependencies are the Hong Kong Observatory’s daytime observations and the later publication of the final Daily Extract, because the market cannot settle until that file is finalised[2][6]. The practical workflow is to watch the Observatory’s readings page and related forecast products through the day, then reconcile the published “Absolute Daily Max” against the market’s Celsius bands once data lands[3][4]. If the max comes in on a bucket boundary, the one-decimal resolution detail becomes important, because rounding and the settlement rule determine which range actually pays.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.