Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 6 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract, so the key number for settlement is the final **Absolute Daily Max** in degrees Celsius, rounded to one decimal. The market is about a single-day peak, not the mean or overnight low, which matters for any programmatic approach: a bot or conditional order should key off the final published Observatory value once the daily extract is updated, rather than intraday feeds or app forecasts that can still move sharply.

Seasonally, early August in Hong Kong is normally hot and humid, with the Observatory’s 1991–2020 daily normals showing a mean maximum of 31.6°C on 6 August. Historical comparables also show that August can produce much higher extremes: the Observatory said August 2024 was “an exceptionally hot August”, with a mean daily maximum of 32.3°C, and it recorded a 34.6°C reading in 2025 during another very hot spell. That backdrop explains why a zero-per-cent crowd price is mainly a statement about the market not yet reflecting resolution risk, not about the climate baseline.

For a trader watching this like an automated workflow, the relevant catalysts are the Observatory’s data publication timing, any heat warning or tropical cyclone developments, and whether cloud, rain, or a southerly flow suppresses afternoon peaks. The forecast side is still noisy at the day-ahead horizon: AccuWeather’s Hong Kong month view for 6 August shows 88°F/80°F, while other forecast services cluster around low-30s Celsius with rain, which is consistent with a materially lower ceiling than the record-hot outcomes but still leaves room for a wide final range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.