Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s hottest reading for the day is what settles this market: the Hong Kong Observatory’s **Absolute Daily Max** in Celsius for 8 August, published once the daily extract is finalised. At 7am UTC, the live question is whether the day will produce a figure meaningfully above the high-30s threshold that has already been seen in recent Hong Kong heat events; that is the level that would keep a **YES** outcome viable. The one-decimal settlement format also matters for programmatic trading, because bots should key off the Observatory’s final value rather than rounded app forecasts or citywide summaries.

The historical frame is that Hong Kong can and does spike into record territory in early August. The Observatory recorded **36.3°C** on 8 August 2015, then the hottest August on record was later highlighted again by the HKO in 2024, showing that extreme early-August heat is not rare in a climatological sense.[2][16] On 8 August 2020, the Observatory’s maximum reached **34.4°C**, which was the highest of that month, while the August normal maximum is far lower at **31.7°C**.[12][6] That gap explains why a 0% crowd price can persist even when the day feels hot: the settle level depends on the single highest official reading, not on general discomfort or local neighbourhood highs.[6][12]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s afternoon temperature path, any thunderstorm or rain band that suppresses peak heating, and the timing of the final daily extract after the observation day closes. The HKO’s regional readings already show a spread between stations, with several inland areas reaching the mid-30s on hot days, so automated traders typically monitor the Observatory feed alongside the station map rather than relying on a single weather app snapshot.[5] If a heat warning remains in force through the afternoon or if skies stay mainly sunny, the probability of a higher final maximum rises; if cloud, showers, or a sea breeze arrive earlier, the cap on the day’s max can fall quickly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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