Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius reading recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 11 July 2026, resolving only once the official Daily Extract publishes the absolute daily maximum. With a current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a YES outcome, the pricing suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range defined by the contract, despite July being historically the hottest month in the city.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as a likely mispricing error or a misunderstanding of the specific range thresholds. July 2022 set the record for the hottest month since 1884, with an average of 30.3°C, while July 2026 forecasts project daily highs between 30°C and 34°C (86°F to 94°F)[1][2][3]. Programmatically, a bot should backtest the specific range against the last decade of July 11 readings; if the range covers 30°C or higher, the 0% probability contradicts the statistical likelihood of a summer peak, suggesting an arbitrage opportunity for automated scripts to enter long positions.

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s release schedule for the finalized Daily Extract, as settlement depends entirely on this specific data point becoming available[8]. The primary catalyst is the publication of the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" in the official climate dataset, which typically occurs shortly after midnight local time once the day concludes[7]. Automated systems should configure conditional orders to trigger immediately upon the API update of the climate page, ensuring execution before manual traders react to the confirmed figure, while ignoring unverified third-party forecasts that lack the required one-decimal precision[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.