Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius reading recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 16 July 2026, resolving to the specific temperature bracket containing that daily maximum. With the crowd-implied probability for the current YES outcome at 0%, the data suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely reflecting a consensus that mid-July heat in Hong Kong will not breach the upper threshold implied by the active contract.

Historical daily maxima for mid-July in Hong Kong typically range between 31°C and 34°C, with extreme outliers occasionally reaching 35°C or higher during prolonged heatwaves. The 0% probability implies the market anticipates conditions consistent with these standard summer highs rather than an anomalous spike, as the settlement window closes well before any late-July temperature anomalies could influence the outcome. Traders evaluating this programmatically should back-test the Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Max” datasets from 2015 to 2025 to identify the frequency of breaches above the contract’s threshold.

Key catalysts include the Hong Kong Observatory’s release schedule for the “Daily Extract” data, which finalises the official reading only after the settlement window closes. No immediate weather announcements are expected to alter the trajectory before 16 July, but traders should monitor the Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal schedule and the South China Sea monsoon intensity, as these factors directly dictate daily temperature ceilings. Recent climate reports from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm that July remains the wettest month, often suppressing peak temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, a dependency that automated bots must weight heavily in their conditional order logic.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.