Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22?

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Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 22 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point will determine the market resolution, with the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the leading range.

Historical June data frames this probability: recent early-June observations already reached 33–34°C on clear days, while 31°C and 32°C remain competitive outcomes[2]. The seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 explicitly predicts above-normal temperatures for Hong Kong, driven by the latest ENSO status and climate models[1]. This trend is reinforced by recent extremes, including a record-breaking 36.1°C day earlier this year that surpassed the 1963 benchmark[4]. Programmatically, a bot would weight these above-normal forecasts heavily, treating the 0% probability as a potential mispricing rather than a definitive signal.

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" for finalised data, as the market cannot resolve until publication[2]. Key catalysts include daily weather announcements and the scheduled release of absolute daily maximums, which depend on the Observatory’s internal verification schedule. Recent news highlights extreme heat warnings issued by the Observatory, with temperatures soaring past 34°C in multiple locations[8]. Conditional orders should be triggered by these official updates, as the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 22 June 2026, leaving no room for delayed data ingestion.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.