Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s maximum on 9 August will be judged from the hourly and daily observations at William P. Hobby Airport, not the headline high shown in summary widgets, so programmatic monitoring needs to ingest the underlying observations feed rather than a forecast tile. In practice, a bot or trading script should poll the resolution source repeatedly through the day and after the afternoon peak, because the final high can shift if a later observation exceeds an earlier one.

The 0% crowd-implied YES price is hard to reconcile with August climatology in Houston, where daily highs commonly sit in the low-to-mid 90s Fahrenheit and the NWS climatology for Hobby Airport shows a normal maximum around 94°F for early August.[12] Comparable recent market framing also points to a 92–93°F band as the most likely outcome, with current observed conditions around 90–93°F and official forecasts near 92°F, which is consistent with a warm, humid summer pattern rather than an outlier heat spike.[4][8][9] For a trader, that means the key question is not whether it gets hot, but whether the realised peak lands inside the specific bin the market resolves to.

The main catalysts are the afternoon convective outlook, cloud cover, and any thunderstorm timing, because those affect whether the station tops out at the forecast high or falls short. The National Weather Service Houston/Galveston office was already calling for a high near 92°F and only a slight chance of thunderstorms, while AccuWeather’s same-day forecast sat around 92°F with the actual temperature still near 90°F later in the day.[1][5][9] A power-user workflow would therefore watch the Hobby Airport observations stream for the day’s maximum and any late adjustments before settlement, since the market rules allow revisions until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Houston on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.