Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit reading at William P. Hobby Airport on 10 July 2026, a date historically prone to extreme heat in Houston. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, despite July being the city’s hottest month.

Historical data frames this zero probability as potentially premature. July 2025 was the second-warmest July on record for Houston, averaging 87.8°F daily, with highs frequently breaching 95°F [1]. Normal July highs at the nearby IAH station average 93°F, while record extremes for the month reach 101°F [4][5]. Even on specific dates like 4 July, temperatures have hit 101°F in 2009, indicating that single-day spikes well above the average are common [10]. A 0% probability ignores this volatility, as historical variance often produces outliers that invalidate narrow range assumptions.

Programmatic traders should monitor the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston forecast schedules, which update daily and drive short-term model adjustments. The resolution source is Wunderground’s KHOU station data, so any API latency or station-specific anomalies could skew automated copy-trading strategies [8]. Recent reports confirm July 2026 forecasts predict daily highs between 83°F and 96°F, with an average of 93°F, providing a baseline for conditional order logic [5]. Traders building bots should weight these forecast bands against the 0% crowd signal, as the historical record suggests the range is likely to be hit given the season’s thermal intensity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Houston on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.