Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston will experience its peak daily heat on 15 July 2026 at William P. Hobby Airport, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that maximum reading. Historical data shows mid-July in Houston routinely delivers highs near 98°F, yet the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest possible outcome suggests traders are pricing in a significant cooling anomaly or data discrepancy rather than the typical triple-digit heat index [1]. This divergence from seasonal norms frames the 0% figure not as a dismissal of heat, but as a signal that the market expects temperatures to cluster in the lower 80s, aligning with the frontrunner outcome of 84–85°F which commands 43% of the volume [2].

For a programmatic trader, the primary catalyst is the real-time feed from Wunderground’s daily history for KHOU, which serves as the sole resolution source. Automated bots should monitor the live temperature stream for 15 July, flagging any deviation from the 98°F baseline as a potential arb opportunity against the 84–85°F consensus [2]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for this future date, the dependency on a single data provider means any latency or outage in the Wunderground API could delay settlement, requiring traders to build failover logic that cross-references local station logs if the primary feed stalls. The market’s settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, creating a hard deadline for position closure once the daily maximum is confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Houston on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.