Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key real-world event is the **highest observed temperature at Los Angeles International Airport on 9 August 2026**, with settlement based on the **Weather Underground Daily Observations** table rather than the summary “Day High & Low” figure. For a programmatic workflow, that means polling the station history page, extracting the intraday maximum, and waiting until the first datapoint for 10 August has been published before treating the result as fixed, because later edits inside the window can still matter under the market rules.[2][16]

The current **0% YES** crowd price is best read as either stale positioning or a belief that the relevant bin has already become overwhelmingly likely. Recent station data and market commentary point to an 80–81°F daily maximum at LAX, which is exactly the dominant outcome shown on the market page and is consistent with the observed late-day values around 79–80°F in official time-series data.[2][8] For comparable framing, the NWS climate report shows a normal August 9 maximum of 84°F for downtown Los Angeles, while the current forecast path and observed conditions at the airport sit below that level, making a late move into a much hotter bin unlikely absent a sharp local surge.[1][12]

The practical catalysts to watch are the **final hourly observations**, any **Weather Underground backfills**, and the publication of the next day’s first datapoint, since those are the inputs that can confirm or lock the settlement value. Traders using bots or conditional orders would typically key off the airport station feed, not broader city forecasts, because the market resolves to one station and one day only; recent local coverage also notes sustained heat across Southern California, but that matters here only insofar as it affects the LAX reading itself.[11][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

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