Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s highest temperature on 10 August is being shaped by a humid, rain-prone monsoon setup rather than a clean sunny surge, with early-day readings already around 27–28°C and forecasts clustering in the low-30s Celsius at most. Weather Underground shows Manila at 1:22 AM PST with rain and 77°F, while PAGASA’s outlook for Metro Manila on Monday, 10 August 2026 is 26°C to 32°C with a 30% chance of rain, which is the sort of range that typically leaves little room for a late-day heat spike.[11][8]

For historical context, Manila’s August climatology is already warm but usually capped by cloud cover and showers; AccuWeather’s August page shows average highs around 87°F and forecast highs for this month mostly between 85°F and 90°F, which is consistent with a market resolving in the upper-20s or around 30–32°C rather than far above it.[1][10] The market’s 0% YES crowd-implied probability is therefore a signal that traders are treating the present setup as highly constrained, not as a literal forecast of impossibility.

A programmatic approach would monitor the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** feed for Ninoy Aquino International Airport and resolve against the highest observed Celsius value before the settlement window closes, because the market contract explicitly prioritises that table over the summary high/low display. Traders should watch for updated monsoon advisories, thunderstorm timing, and any late-morning break in cloud cover, since even a brief sunny interval can lift the day’s maximum by a degree or two; PAGASA’s Monday bulletin and Weather Underground’s timestamped observations are the key inputs to poll or scrape on a schedule.[12][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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