Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 11 July 2026, with settlement relying on Wunderground’s daily high for that station. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome exceeding 24°C, yet historical July averages in Manila cluster around 31°C, tempered only by active monsoon conditions [1]. Programmatically, a bot would ingest this 0% signal as a potential mispricing against the baseline climatology, flagging the divergence between the crowd’s extreme caution and the typical 31°C mean.

Historical data frames this probability as an outlier; recent July readings show highs like 94.8°F (35.0°C) on 3 July 2026, while yesterday’s maximum was 88°F (31.1°C) [2][4]. The all-time record for Metro Manila remains 38.6°C from May 1915, but typical early July afternoon highs consistently fall between 31°C and 35°C [3][9]. The market’s leading outcome is 29°C at 42%, followed by 28°C at 25%, suggesting the crowd expects a cooler day than the historical norm despite the 0% tail risk [1].

Traders should monitor real-time monsoon updates and humidity schedules, as active wet conditions can suppress peaks below 30°C. Urbanisation effects in Metro Manila can add 4°C to heatwave events compared to cropland, meaning airport readings may lag city-centre spikes [8]. A script would poll Wunderground hourly for the RPLL station, comparing live highs against the 29°C threshold to adjust conditional orders before the 2026-07-11T12:00:00Z settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.