Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s temperature on 10 August will be resolved from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, so the key number for this market is the highest observed reading in that table rather than the headline day high. Munich’s August climate is usually mild to warm, with typical afternoon highs around 24–25°C and historical August extremes reaching 37–38°C, so a very high outcome is possible but uncommon.[1][10][17]

For framing the current 0% crowd price, the relevant comparison is not the month’s average but the distribution of hot late-summer days. Historical August data show Munich can briefly surge into the low-to-mid 30s, while most days sit well below that, and the record August high is far above the long-run average. That means programmatic traders usually model this as a threshold problem: ingest the station observations near real time, then map the eventual maximum to the market’s settlement bands once the day is complete.[1][4][17]

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, local convective risk, and any shift in the synoptic pattern over Bavaria, because those determine whether the airport reaches the upper 20s, low 30s, or higher. AccuWeather’s current Munich page shows an 8/10 forecast around 91°F/33°C, which is materially above the monthly norm and indicates a warmer-than-average setup if that guidance holds.[2][5] For automation, traders will typically watch the live Weather Underground history page for late adjustments and set conditional orders around the likely resolution bands rather than the headline forecast alone.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

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