Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature reached at LaGuardia Airport on 2 August, measured in Fahrenheit and settled from Wunderground’s daily history page for KLGA.[2] With the market currently implying 0% for **YES**, the crowd is effectively pricing the named bucket as unattainable, which is only sensible if the live forecast and any late-day warmth are expected to stay outside that range.[4]

For context, New York City’s late-summer climatology sits around the low 80s, with August average highs near 83°F, so the more common outcomes cluster around the middle brackets rather than the extreme tails.[18][1] That matters for parsers and automation: if you are tracking this programmatically, the useful inputs are the airport’s observed max, the timing of the day’s peak, and whether the final Wunderground history entry has been updated after the local afternoon heating cycle. Recent heat episodes have shown that LaGuardia can run materially hotter than Central Park, with the airport reaching 104°F during the early July heat wave while the city’s official station topped out at 100°F.[16]

The main catalysts are straightforward: the day’s forecast trend, any last-minute convective cloud cover or sea-breeze effects, and whether the airport observation site logs a late peak before the settlement window closes. For a power-user setup, this is a clean case for conditional orders or alerting logic keyed to successive forecast revisions, then a final check against the Wunderground history page once the day’s maximum is locked in.[2][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.