Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s temperature on 10 August will be driven by the afternoon maximum at Incheon International Airport Station, with the market resolving from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations rather than the site’s summary high/low box. That distinction matters for automation: a script should query the station history table directly, parse the day’s highest Celsius reading, and map it to the market’s payout bands instead of relying on a forecast widget or a rounded headline figure. Weather histories for Seoul in August cluster around low-30s Celsius daytime highs, with long-run August averages near 30°C and recent daily maxima often in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius.[2][8][10]

The current 0% implied probability for YES is unusually low relative to those seasonal norms, but it only becomes informative if the market’s exact threshold is materially above the expected daily peak. Comparable recent Seoul histories show highs near 99°F/37°C on some days, alongside many days below that mark, which means late-breaking heat events can still move the distribution quickly.[1][5][6] For a trader using bots or conditional orders, the practical edge is to watch intraday observation updates around local afternoon heating, because the final resolved value will depend on the single highest observed entry in the table, not the “feels like” line, not daily averages, and not an earlier forecast snapshot.[4][13][15]

Catalysts are limited but concrete: the key dependency is the weather evolution over the airport station itself, plus any updated synoptic pattern that changes cloud cover, rainfall, or sea-breeze moderation over western Seoul. August climatology points to hot, humid conditions with meaningful rainfall risk, so a programme that polls the source table near the settlement window and re-prices as observations appear is more reliable than one that leans on daily summaries.[2][8][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.