Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s afternoon maximum on 3 August is the number that matters here, but the contract settles off the **highest temperature recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station** on Wunderground, so the cleanest way to model it is as a single-day terminal event rather than a broader “Seoul weather” trade. With the market still priced at **0% YES**, the crowd is effectively saying the relevant temperature band is either seen as impossible or badly mismatched to the implied outcome, which is often what happens when traders have not mapped the reference station and settlement source tightly enough.

For comparable framing, the regional forecast points to a very hot day rather than a tail event: a Korean news forecast for 3 August put **Incheon at 34°C** and **Seoul at 37°C**, while another report said Seoul could reach **37°C** as easterly winds intensified heat west of the mountains.[3][1] Seasonal context also supports elevated readings, with August highs in Seoul commonly landing in the **low to high 30s Celsius** in some forecasts, and August weather descriptions emphasising heat, humidity, and frequent rain rather than cool air masses.[2][15][16] A programmatic trader would treat this as a calibration problem: compare the station-specific hourly history feed against the contract’s Celsius bands, then map the day’s observed maximum into the payout range once the final Wunderground reading is known.

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the heatwave advisory over the capital area persists, whether cloud cover or showers suppress the daytime peak, and whether local winds remain easterly enough to keep western areas hotter.[1][3] The current setup also shows the practical value of automation: a bot can poll the reference station throughout the day, watch for any late-afternoon spike, and place conditional orders only if live observations move towards the next band. Yesterday-style forecast drift matters less than the actual station print, so the relevant dependency is the Incheon Airport maximum itself, not a citywide average or headline “feels like” number.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.