Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 11 July 2026, with the market tracking the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport. The current 0% YES probability suggests the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to the monsoon season’s cooling influence. Historical data shows Seoul reached a record 37.8°C in early July 2023, yet long-term averages for the month typically cap daytime maximums around 28°C, with high humidity often masking the true thermal intensity [1][3].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts, which update hourly and specify the highest temperature between 9 AM and 5 PM [9]. The primary catalyst is the progression of the Jangma monsoon, which concentrates heavy rainfall in July and frequently suppresses peak temperatures below 30°C despite high humidity levels [4]. Programmatically, bots should ingest Wunderground’s daily history for RKSI at the settlement deadline, cross-referencing real-time KMA updates to adjust conditional orders if the forecast shifts toward a heatwave or sustained rain.

The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground’s recorded high for Incheon, not Seoul city centre, which can differ by several degrees due to urban heat island effects [1]. While AccuWeather forecasts daily highs up to 99°F (37.2°C) for July 2026, the wettest month in Korea often delivers cooler, cloudier conditions that keep temperatures near the 28°C average [2][3]. Power-users evaluating this tooling must account for the 16 days of typical rainfall, which increases the likelihood of the temperature staying within lower ranges rather than breaching extreme heat thresholds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.