Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The key event is the **highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on 22 June 2026**, which is the figure used for settlement rather than the broader Seoul metro area. The crowd-implied **0% YES** is consistent with a market that has already moved past the practical setup phase: for a midday settlement window, the decisive move is not a forecast of late-afternoon heat, but whether the day has already printed a qualifying maximum in the official history feed.

For context, June in Seoul normally produces highs that rise through the month, with typical daily maxima around the high 20s Celsius and rarely above the upper 30s Fahrenheit equivalent of the local climatology range given by WeatherSpark[1]. Longer-run Korean temperature records also show a stronger warming and heat-extreme profile, with recent summers repeatedly setting or challenging records, which matters when reading low-probability bands in summer weather markets[2][3]. For a programmatic workflow, that means the relevant input is a single authoritative daily-max series from the resolution source, not model consensus or city-average weather apps, and traders using bots or conditional orders should key off the official station page rather than generic Seoul forecasts[7].

The main catalysts are operational rather than political: the terminal forecast, cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and whether any advisories imply a sharper intraday spike before the settlement cut-off. A power-user would normally monitor the hourly forecast for Incheon, compare it with nearby airport observations, and watch for any update to the Wunderground daily history page that could lock in the max. If the day has already produced an early peak, the remaining risk is mostly in whether a later reading exceeds it before noon UTC; otherwise, the market’s value should compress quickly as the official high becomes less contestable[7][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.