Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s highest temperature on 4 August will be set by the afternoon peak recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station, with settlement tied to the day’s observed maximum rather than any single forecast run. In practice, a programme watching this market would poll the Wunderground history page for the station and map the published high into the market’s outcome bands once the first datapoint for 5 August appears, because revisions inside the settlement window can still matter until that cut-off.[6]

The current 0% YES pricing sits far below the climate backdrop. August in Shenzhen is typically hot, humid and wet, with forecast and climatology sources clustering around daily highs of about 31–32°C and frequent rain; several services also point to showers or patchy rain on 4 August, which usually trims upside more than it creates it.[2][3][13][17] That means the market is effectively asking whether the station prints an unusually cool or unusually hot reading relative to the normal August band, not whether it gets warm at all.[1][2]

For a trader using bots, conditional orders or copy-trading, the useful inputs are the live forecast deltas into the midday/evening heating window, any radar shift in convective rain, and the eventual observation feed rather than generic city weather. Shenzhen was already reporting cloudy, humid conditions with light winds in recent observations, which is compatible with a modestly capped high if showers persist, but a brief clearing can still push the maximum into the low 30s.[8][10][12][15] The practical workflow is to monitor forecast updates through the day, compare them with the settlement source, and only treat the market as “locked in” once the official daily history page has moved beyond 4 August.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.