Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s daytime heat is the key variable here: the market settles on the *highest* temperature recorded at Haneda Airport, so an early warm-up matters more than the evening cooling. The current 0% YES implies traders are discounting any outcome in the target range, but the live forecasts already point to a hot day rather than an outlier cool spell, with Tokyo around 31°C to 33°C on August averages and hourly readings pushing into the high 80s °F by late morning and midday.[1][2][16]

For comparison, JMA’s August daily data show that Tokyo-area highs commonly sit in the low-to-mid 30s °C, while Haneda itself can run a few degrees cooler than inland wards on some days because of its coastal location.[11] That matters for programmatic approaches: a bot should map the market’s strike bands to the exact Wunderground resolution source and update intraday against fresh observations, rather than relying on citywide forecast averages. In practice, the most useful trigger is whether the station reaches the upper 20s or low 30s °C before cloud cover, sea breeze, or showers cap the day’s maximum.

The main catalysts to watch are the day-of temperature trace, any rain bands, and the timing of sea-breeze moderation; Tokyo in August also has a meaningful rain incidence, so a weak front or convective showers can shave the high quickly.[3][15][16] A power-user setup would poll the weather history page and compare it with JMA and hourly forecast feeds, then fire conditional orders if the observed max at Haneda breaks through successive thresholds early in the local afternoon. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, the critical window is the morning-to-early-afternoon Tokyo heat peak, before the market can be fully priced on the final station reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.